{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "c1915f05-dde7-48c3-8685-54106e8db9d3",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# Colley Ratings\n",
    "\n",
    "Colley Ratings are a mathematically sound, unbiased method for ranking football teams, relying exclusively on match outcomes rather than scores or margins of victory. \n",
    "\n",
    "Unlike some rating systems, the Colley method is specifically designed to be objective, using only wins, losses, and draws without subjective weighting. \n",
    "\n",
    "Its mathematical simplicity and stability make it highly suitable for quickly evaluating team performance, objectively comparing team strengths, and identifying discrepancies between actual team quality and public perception or bookmaker odds."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "id": "a23baca5-1387-4d56-9c8a-59bf2633bd84",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import penaltyblog as pb"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "id": "bea84cd8-7e75-4863-9ece-349870e19e53",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
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       "<div>\n",
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       "\n",
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       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>date</th>\n",
       "      <th>datetime</th>\n",
       "      <th>season</th>\n",
       "      <th>competition</th>\n",
       "      <th>div</th>\n",
       "      <th>time</th>\n",
       "      <th>team_home</th>\n",
       "      <th>team_away</th>\n",
       "      <th>fthg</th>\n",
       "      <th>ftag</th>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <th>b365_cahh</th>\n",
       "      <th>b365_caha</th>\n",
       "      <th>pcahh</th>\n",
       "      <th>pcaha</th>\n",
       "      <th>max_cahh</th>\n",
       "      <th>max_caha</th>\n",
       "      <th>avg_cahh</th>\n",
       "      <th>avg_caha</th>\n",
       "      <th>goals_home</th>\n",
       "      <th>goals_away</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>id</th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1628812800---brentford---arsenal</th>\n",
       "      <td>2021-08-13</td>\n",
       "      <td>2021-08-13 20:00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>2021-2022</td>\n",
       "      <td>ENG Premier League</td>\n",
       "      <td>E0</td>\n",
       "      <td>20:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>Brentford</td>\n",
       "      <td>Arsenal</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.75</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.81</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.13</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.17</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.80</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.09</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1628899200---burnley---brighton</th>\n",
       "      <td>2021-08-14</td>\n",
       "      <td>2021-08-14 15:00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>2021-2022</td>\n",
       "      <td>ENG Premier League</td>\n",
       "      <td>E0</td>\n",
       "      <td>15:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>Burnley</td>\n",
       "      <td>Brighton</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.79</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.15</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.81</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.14</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.82</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.19</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.79</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.12</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>2</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1628899200---chelsea---crystal_palace</th>\n",
       "      <td>2021-08-14</td>\n",
       "      <td>2021-08-14 15:00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>2021-2022</td>\n",
       "      <td>ENG Premier League</td>\n",
       "      <td>E0</td>\n",
       "      <td>15:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>Chelsea</td>\n",
       "      <td>Crystal Palace</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.75</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.12</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.81</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.16</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.93</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.06</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.82</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1628899200---everton---southampton</th>\n",
       "      <td>2021-08-14</td>\n",
       "      <td>2021-08-14 15:00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>2021-2022</td>\n",
       "      <td>ENG Premier League</td>\n",
       "      <td>E0</td>\n",
       "      <td>15:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>Everton</td>\n",
       "      <td>Southampton</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.88</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.88</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.08</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.90</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.03</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.86</td>\n",
       "      <td>3</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1628899200---leicester---wolves</th>\n",
       "      <td>2021-08-14</td>\n",
       "      <td>2021-08-14 15:00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>2021-2022</td>\n",
       "      <td>ENG Premier League</td>\n",
       "      <td>E0</td>\n",
       "      <td>15:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>Leicester</td>\n",
       "      <td>Wolves</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.02</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.91</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.01</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.92</td>\n",
       "      <td>2.05</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.95</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.99</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.89</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>5 rows × 111 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                                            date            datetime  \\\n",
       "id                                                                     \n",
       "1628812800---brentford---arsenal      2021-08-13 2021-08-13 20:00:00   \n",
       "1628899200---burnley---brighton       2021-08-14 2021-08-14 15:00:00   \n",
       "1628899200---chelsea---crystal_palace 2021-08-14 2021-08-14 15:00:00   \n",
       "1628899200---everton---southampton    2021-08-14 2021-08-14 15:00:00   \n",
       "1628899200---leicester---wolves       2021-08-14 2021-08-14 15:00:00   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                          season         competition div  \\\n",
       "id                                                                         \n",
       "1628812800---brentford---arsenal       2021-2022  ENG Premier League  E0   \n",
       "1628899200---burnley---brighton        2021-2022  ENG Premier League  E0   \n",
       "1628899200---chelsea---crystal_palace  2021-2022  ENG Premier League  E0   \n",
       "1628899200---everton---southampton     2021-2022  ENG Premier League  E0   \n",
       "1628899200---leicester---wolves        2021-2022  ENG Premier League  E0   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                        time  team_home       team_away  fthg  \\\n",
       "id                                                                              \n",
       "1628812800---brentford---arsenal       20:00  Brentford         Arsenal     2   \n",
       "1628899200---burnley---brighton        15:00    Burnley        Brighton     1   \n",
       "1628899200---chelsea---crystal_palace  15:00    Chelsea  Crystal Palace     3   \n",
       "1628899200---everton---southampton     15:00    Everton     Southampton     3   \n",
       "1628899200---leicester---wolves        15:00  Leicester          Wolves     1   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                       ftag  ... b365_cahh  b365_caha  pcahh  \\\n",
       "id                                           ...                               \n",
       "1628812800---brentford---arsenal          0  ...      1.75       2.05   1.81   \n",
       "1628899200---burnley---brighton           2  ...      1.79       2.15   1.81   \n",
       "1628899200---chelsea---crystal_palace     0  ...      2.05       1.75   2.12   \n",
       "1628899200---everton---southampton        1  ...      2.05       1.88   2.05   \n",
       "1628899200---leicester---wolves           0  ...      2.02       1.91   2.01   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                      pcaha max_cahh  max_caha  avg_cahh  \\\n",
       "id                                                                         \n",
       "1628812800---brentford---arsenal       2.13     2.05      2.17      1.80   \n",
       "1628899200---burnley---brighton        2.14     1.82      2.19      1.79   \n",
       "1628899200---chelsea---crystal_palace  1.81     2.16      1.93      2.06   \n",
       "1628899200---everton---southampton     1.88     2.08      1.90      2.03   \n",
       "1628899200---leicester---wolves        1.92     2.05      1.95      1.99   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                       avg_caha  goals_home  goals_away  \n",
       "id                                                                       \n",
       "1628812800---brentford---arsenal           2.09           2           0  \n",
       "1628899200---burnley---brighton            2.12           1           2  \n",
       "1628899200---chelsea---crystal_palace      1.82           3           0  \n",
       "1628899200---everton---southampton         1.86           3           1  \n",
       "1628899200---leicester---wolves            1.89           1           0  \n",
       "\n",
       "[5 rows x 111 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 2,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "fbd = pb.scrapers.FootballData(\"ENG Premier League\", \"2021-2022\")\n",
    "df = fbd.get_fixtures()\n",
    "\n",
    "df.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "6f3eb29e-a381-40bf-8d65-63f6744232f3",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Colley ratings including tied scorelines"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "id": "9fc2e8b0-d55f-45c4-bb23-69cf0fdcf56c",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>team</th>\n",
       "      <th>rating</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>Liverpool</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.904762</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>Man City</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.892857</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>Chelsea</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.791667</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>Tottenham</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.708333</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>Arsenal</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.672619</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>5</th>\n",
       "      <td>Man United</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.654762</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6</th>\n",
       "      <td>Brighton</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.64881</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>7</th>\n",
       "      <td>Crystal Palace</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.625</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>8</th>\n",
       "      <td>West Ham</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.619048</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9</th>\n",
       "      <td>Leicester</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.607143</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>10</th>\n",
       "      <td>Newcastle</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.583333</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>11</th>\n",
       "      <td>Wolves</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.559524</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>12</th>\n",
       "      <td>Southampton</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.541667</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13</th>\n",
       "      <td>Brentford</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.529762</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>14</th>\n",
       "      <td>Aston Villa</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.511905</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15</th>\n",
       "      <td>Burnley</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.511905</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>16</th>\n",
       "      <td>Leeds</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.505952</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>17</th>\n",
       "      <td>Everton</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.464286</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>18</th>\n",
       "      <td>Norwich</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.339286</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>19</th>\n",
       "      <td>Watford</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.327381</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "              team    rating\n",
       "0        Liverpool  1.904762\n",
       "1         Man City  1.892857\n",
       "2          Chelsea  1.791667\n",
       "3        Tottenham  1.708333\n",
       "4          Arsenal  1.672619\n",
       "5       Man United  1.654762\n",
       "6         Brighton   1.64881\n",
       "7   Crystal Palace     1.625\n",
       "8         West Ham  1.619048\n",
       "9        Leicester  1.607143\n",
       "10       Newcastle  1.583333\n",
       "11          Wolves  1.559524\n",
       "12     Southampton  1.541667\n",
       "13       Brentford  1.529762\n",
       "14     Aston Villa  1.511905\n",
       "15         Burnley  1.511905\n",
       "16           Leeds  1.505952\n",
       "17         Everton  1.464286\n",
       "18         Norwich  1.339286\n",
       "19         Watford  1.327381"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 3,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "colley = pb.ratings.Colley(\n",
    "    df[\"goals_home\"], df[\"goals_away\"], df[\"team_home\"], df[\"team_away\"]\n",
    ")\n",
    "colley.get_ratings()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "f2f7e397-82de-4086-87a4-a6e76fe1251c",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Colley ratings excluding tied scorelines"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "id": "7515c4ce-e932-46f6-92da-4be85185a98f",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
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       "\n",
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       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
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       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>team</th>\n",
       "      <th>rating</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>Liverpool</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.809524</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>Man City</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.809524</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>Chelsea</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.678571</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>Tottenham</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.630952</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>Arsenal</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.607143</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>5</th>\n",
       "      <td>Man United</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.547619</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6</th>\n",
       "      <td>West Ham</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.52381</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>7</th>\n",
       "      <td>Brighton</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.511905</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>8</th>\n",
       "      <td>Leicester</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.5</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9</th>\n",
       "      <td>Crystal Palace</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.488095</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>10</th>\n",
       "      <td>Newcastle</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.47619</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>11</th>\n",
       "      <td>Wolves</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.47619</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>12</th>\n",
       "      <td>Brentford</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.440476</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13</th>\n",
       "      <td>Aston Villa</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.428571</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>14</th>\n",
       "      <td>Southampton</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.416667</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15</th>\n",
       "      <td>Leeds</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.392857</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>16</th>\n",
       "      <td>Burnley</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.380952</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>17</th>\n",
       "      <td>Everton</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.380952</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>18</th>\n",
       "      <td>Norwich</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.25</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>19</th>\n",
       "      <td>Watford</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.25</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "              team    rating\n",
       "0        Liverpool  0.809524\n",
       "1         Man City  0.809524\n",
       "2          Chelsea  0.678571\n",
       "3        Tottenham  0.630952\n",
       "4          Arsenal  0.607143\n",
       "5       Man United  0.547619\n",
       "6         West Ham   0.52381\n",
       "7         Brighton  0.511905\n",
       "8        Leicester       0.5\n",
       "9   Crystal Palace  0.488095\n",
       "10       Newcastle   0.47619\n",
       "11          Wolves   0.47619\n",
       "12       Brentford  0.440476\n",
       "13     Aston Villa  0.428571\n",
       "14     Southampton  0.416667\n",
       "15           Leeds  0.392857\n",
       "16         Burnley  0.380952\n",
       "17         Everton  0.380952\n",
       "18         Norwich      0.25\n",
       "19         Watford      0.25"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 4,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "colley = pb.ratings.Colley(\n",
    "    df[\"goals_home\"],\n",
    "    df[\"goals_away\"],\n",
    "    df[\"team_home\"],\n",
    "    df[\"team_away\"],\n",
    "    include_draws=False,\n",
    ")\n",
    "colley.get_ratings()"
   ]
  }
 ],
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