References#

The models and methodologies implemented in penaltyblog are grounded in well-established academic research on football analytics, probability modeling, and betting market efficiency.

The following references include foundational papers on Poisson and Bivariate Poisson models, Dixon-Coles adjustments, Elo and alternative rating systems, and approaches to estimating bookmaker probabilities.

These works have been instrumental in shaping the statistical techniques used within penaltyblog, providing a solid theoretical foundation for accurate football prediction and betting analysis.

  • Baio, G., & Blangiardo, M. (2010). Bayesian hierarchical model for the prediction of football results. *Journal of Applied Statistics, 37*(2), 253–264. Available here.

  • Buchdahl, J. (2015). The Wisdom of the Crowd. Available here.

  • Constantinou, A. C., & Fenton, N. E. (2011). Solving the problem of inadequate scoring rules for assessing probabilistic football forecast models. Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis Research Group (RADAR), Queen Mary University of London. Available here.

  • Constantinou, A. C., Fenton, N. E., & Neil, M. (2013). Profiting from an inefficient Association Football gambling market: Prediction, risk, and uncertainty using Bayesian networks. *Knowledge-Based Systems, 50*(1), 60–86. Available here.

  • Dixon, M. J., & Coles, S. G. (1997). Modelling association football scores and inefficiencies in the football betting market. *Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 46*(2), 265–280. Available here.

  • Elo, A. (1978). The Rating of Chessplayers, Past and Present. Batsford. Available here.

  • Karlis, D., & Ntzoufras, I. (2003). Analysis of sports data by using bivariate Poisson models. *Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician), 52*(3), 381–393. Available here.

  • Maher, M. J. (1982). Modelling association football scores. *Statistica Neerlandica, 36*(3), 109–120. Available here.

  • Rue, H., & Salvesen, Ø. (1999). Prediction and retrospective analysis of soccer matches in a league. *Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician), 50*(3), 399–418. Available here.

  • Shin, H. S. (1992). Prices of state contingent claims with insider traders, and the favourite-longshot bias. *The Economic Journal, 102*(411), 426–435. Published by Oxford University Press. Available here.

  • Shin, H. S. (1993). Measuring the incidence of insider trading in a market for state-contingent claims. *The Economic Journal, 103*(420), 1141–1153. Published by Oxford University Press. Available here.

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