penaltyblog.models.WeibullCopulaGoalsModel

class penaltyblog.models.WeibullCopulaGoalsModel(goals_home: Sequence[int] | ndarray[Any, dtype[int64]] | Series, goals_away: Sequence[int] | ndarray[Any, dtype[int64]] | Series, teams_home: Sequence[str] | ndarray[Any, dtype[str_]] | Series, teams_away: Sequence[str] | ndarray[Any, dtype[str_]] | Series, weights: float | Sequence[float] | ndarray[Any, dtype[float64]] | Series | None = None)

Bases: BaseGoalsModel

Weibull Copula model for predicting outcomes of football (soccer) matches

fit()

fits a Weibull Copula model to the data to calculate the team strengths. Must be called before the model can be used to predict game outcomes

predict(home_team, away_team, max_goals=15)

predicts the probability of each scoreline for a given home and away team

get_params()

provides access to the model’s fitted parameters

__init__(goals_home: Sequence[int] | ndarray[Any, dtype[int64]] | Series, goals_away: Sequence[int] | ndarray[Any, dtype[int64]] | Series, teams_home: Sequence[str] | ndarray[Any, dtype[str_]] | Series, teams_away: Sequence[str] | ndarray[Any, dtype[str_]] | Series, weights: float | Sequence[float] | ndarray[Any, dtype[float64]] | Series | None = None)

Initialises the WeibullCopulaGoalModel class.

Parameters:

• goals_home (array_like) – The number of goals scored by the home team

• goals_away (array_like) – The number of goals scored by the away team

• teams_home (array_like) – The names of the home teams

• teams_away (array_like) – The names of the away teams

• weights (array_like, optional) – The weights of the matches, by default None

Methods

__init__(goals_home, goals_away, teams_home, ...)	Initialises the WeibullCopulaGoalModel class.
fit()	Fits the Weibull Copula model to the data.
get_params()	Return the fitted parameters in a dictionary.
load(filepath)	Loads a model from a file.
predict(home_team, away_team[, max_goals])	Predicts the probability of each market for a given home and away team.
save(filepath)	Saves the model to a file using pickle.

Attributes

params

Property to retrieve the fitted model parameters.

fit()

Fits the Weibull Copula model to the data.

get_params() → Dict[str, float]

Return the fitted parameters in a dictionary.

classmethod load(filepath: str) → Any

Loads a model from a file.

Parameters:

filepath (str) – The path to the file from which the model will be loaded.

Returns:

An instance of the model.

Return type:

Any

property params: dict

Property to retrieve the fitted model parameters. Same as get_params(), but allows attribute-like access.

Returns:

A dictionary containing attack, defense, home advantage, and correlation parameters.

Return type:

dict

Raises:

ValueError – If the model has not been fitted yet.

predict(home_team: str, away_team: str, max_goals: int = 15) → FootballProbabilityGrid

Predicts the probability of each market for a given home and away team.

Parameters:

• home_team (str) – The name of the home team

• away_team (str) – The name of the away team

• max_goals (int, optional) – The maximum number of goals to consider, by default 15

Returns:

A FootballProbabilityGrid object containing the probability of each scoreline

Return type:

FootballProbabilityGrid

save(filepath: str)

Saves the model to a file using pickle.

Parameters:

filepath (str) – The path to the file where the model will be saved.