penaltyblog.models.goal_expectancy

penaltyblog.models.goal_expectancy(home: float, draw: float, away: float, dc_adj: bool = True, rho: float = 0.001) → dict

Estimates the bookmaker’s goal expectencies for the home team and away team based on the home, draw, and away probabilities.

Parameters:

• home (float) – Probability of home win

• draw (float) – Probability of draw

• away (float) – Probability of away win

• dc_adj (bool) – Whether to apply the Dixon and Coles adjustment

• rho (float) – The value for rho within the Dixon and Coles adjustment if dc_adj is True

Returns:

• Dictionary containing home team’s goal expectancy, away team’s goal expectancy,

• the mean squared error between actual probabilities and estimated probabilities,

• and whether the minimizer returned as successful or not